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Campaigns: Voting

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Now that we have looked at the characteristics of both parties and elections, lets see how these factors influence the selection of public officials.  We will have to look at three things:

1) voting (as process, as individual action)

a) theoretical foundations

b) characteristics

c) actual variations in turnout rates

2) the election cycle

a) recruiting candidates for office

b) the primaries

c) conventions

d) the general election

3) campaigning

a) the candidate-centered organization

b) the role of the party in campaigns

c) external actors (PACs, the media)

Reminder:  Exam 2

on Thursday

Study guide for exam

How Do Individuals Vote?

What do you think the theories say about voting in each of the theories?

(Sounds like a good essay question to me!!)

Let's look at some evidence!

A Schematic View of the Individual Voting Process

DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS

lead to

PSYCHOLOGICAL AFFILIATIONS and BIASES

which modify

CANDIDATE PERFORMANCE EVALUATIONS and ISSUES

which determine

VOTING

Demographic Characteristics: Age, Gender, Race, Religion, Region, Income, Education, Class, Occupation

Psychological Affiliations and Biases: Civic Duty, Partisanship, Ideology

Candidate Performance Evaluations and Issues: Satisfaction/ Dissatisfaction with Candidate, P

olicy Stands, Cognitive Assonance/ Dissonance

Differences in Turnout Rates

What do you think turnout rates are like in other countries?

Country	% Turnout	World Rank
South Africa	85.5	10
Australia	82.5	20
Turkey	79.1	33
Germany	72.4	55
United Kingdom	69.4	63
Ireland	67.4	70
India	61.1	92
Canada	56.2	104
USA	49.1	119

Empirical Analysis of Participation and Voting

The variables/ groups relevant for our analysis include:

1) gender; 2) race; 3) age; 4) income; 5) region;

6) religion, 7) occupation; 8) class; and 9) party identification.

Along with questions about who is most likely to vote and for whom/ what party, etc.

We can also explore differences in important attitudes and issues:

1) concern about the size of government

2) role of government in the economy

3) trust in government

4) foreign policy

5) freedom of speech

6) welfare

7) support for various branches of government/ other institutions

Times-Mirror Voting Group Typology

	Republicans	Democrats	Independents
Enterprisers (12%)  anti-government,  worry about economic issues	77%	0%	23%
Moralists (13%) prayer, anti-abortion,  worry about social issues	87	0	13
Upbeats (12%) Young, optimistic, patriotic, pro-government,  worry about economic issues	33	3	63
Disaffecteds (11%)  pessimistic, alienated,  financially pressured,  worry about economic course	16	6	78
Followers (6%) Young, apathetic,  worry about job loss because of foreign competititon	10	39	51
Seculars (5%)  nonreligious, nonmilitant, tolerant, educated,  worry about the economy	8	48	44
'60s Democrats (11%)  religious, nonmilitant, tolerant, educated, progovernment,  worry about social issues	1	62	36
New Dealers (10%) older, progovernment,  socially conservative, worry about foreign competition	0	86	14
Partisan Poor (10%) militantly Democratic,  prosocial spending,  worry about drugs, unemployment, social justice	0	89	11
God and Country Democrats (7%)  older, religious, poor, patriotic, worry about drugs, crime,  foreign competition	2	70	28
Totals	25	37	38

Times-Mirror General Issues Categories

The Role of Government

Fairness

Competitiveness

Public Spiritedness

The Needs of Children

Foreign Policy

Other Factors

Level of Election

Intensity

Assonance, Dissonance

Summary on Voting

TM Voter Composite

lead to

Partisan Identifications Issue Orientations

which modify

Evaluations of Candidates and Stands

which determine

VOTING

Which theory do you think the evidence supports?