Begin exam review:
Go over Dand Z 7 & 8
Election
Campaigns
Due Monday:
Explorit Exercise 8
 
1) voting (as process, as individual action)

 

a) theoretical foundations
b) characteristics
c) actual variations in turnout rates
 

2) the election cycle

 

a) recruiting candidates for office
b) the primaries
c) conventions
d) the general election
 

3) campaigning

 

a) the candidate-centered organization
b) the role of the party in campaigns
c) external actors (PACs, the media)

 

Reminder:  Exam 2

next Friday

Study guide for exam

 

 

 

How Do Individuals Vote?

 

A Schematic View of the Individual Voting Process

DEMOGRAPHIC 
CHARACTERISTICS		 lead to PSYCHOLOGICAL AFFILIATIONS and BIASES which modify CANDIDATE PERFORMANCE EVALUATIONS and ISSUES which determine VOTING
 
Demographic Characteristics: Age, Gender, Race, Religion, Region, Income, Education, Class, Occupation

 

Psychological Affiliations and Biases: Civic Duty, Partisanship, Ideology

 

Candidate Performance Evaluations and Issues: Satisfaction/ Dissatisfaction with Candidate, 

Policy Stands, Cognitive Assonance/ Dissonance

 

 

 
Differences in Turnout Rates
 

Country
% Turnout
World Rank 
South Africa
85.5
10
Australia
82.5
20
Turkey
79.1
33
Germany
72.4
55
United Kingdom
69.4
63
Ireland
67.4
70
India
61.1
92
Canada
56.2
104
USA
49.1
119
 

 

 

Empirical Analysis of Participation and Voting

 

Utilizing the MicroCase data for the National Election Study (1996) and General Social Survey (1994, 1996),

 we can explore participation and voting among subgroups of the population.

 

The variables/ groups relevant for our analysis include:
1) gender; 2) race; 3) age; 4) income; 5) region;
6) religion, 7) occupation; 8) class; and 9) party identification.

 

 

Along with questions about who is most likely to vote and for whom/ what party, etc.

 

We can also explore differences in important attitudes and issues:

 

1) concern about the size of government

 

2) role of government in the economy

 

3) trust in government

 

4) foreign policy

 

5) freedom of speech

 

6) welfare

 

7) support for various branches of government/ other institutions
 
 

 

Times-Mirror Voting Group Typology

Republicans
 Democrats Independents
Enterprisers (12%)
anti-government, 
worry about economic issues
77%
0%
23%
Moralists (13%)
prayer, anti-abortion, 
worry about social issues
87
0
13
Upbeats (12%)
Young, optimistic, patriotic, pro-government, 
worry about economic issues
33
3
63
Disaffecteds (11%)
pessimistic, alienated, 
financially pressured, 
worry about economic course
16
6
78
Followers (6%)
Young, apathetic, 
worry about job loss because of foreign competititon
10
39
51
Seculars (5%)
nonreligious, nonmilitant, tolerant, educated, 
worry about the economy
8
48
44
'60s Democrats (11%)
 religious, nonmilitant, tolerant, educated, progovernment, 
worry about social issues
1
62
36
New Dealers (10%)
older, progovernment, 
socially conservative,
worry about foreign competition
0
86
14
Partisan Poor (10%)
militantly Democratic, 
prosocial spending, 
worry about drugs, unemployment, social justice
0
89
11
God and Country Democrats (7%)
older, religious, poor, patriotic, worry about drugs, crime, 
foreign competition
2
70
28
Totals
25
 37
38
 

 

 

Times-Mirror General Issues Categories
 

The Role of Government
Fairness
Competitiveness
Public Spiritedness
The Needs of Children
Foreign Policy
 
Other Factors
Level of Election
Intensity
Assonance, Dissonance
 
Summary on Voting
TM Voter Composite lead to Partisan Identifications 
Issue Orientations		 which modify Evaluations of Candidates and Stands which determine VOTING

 

The Election Cycle

 

Since American elections are regular, we can easily examine the cycle in which elections at all levels take place. 

While there are some variations endemic to the level at which elections take place (stratarchy),

 generally one can discover the following pattern:

 

1) recruiting candidates for office

 

party recruitment vs. self-recruitment
when is decision made?
differences in patterns of recruitment related to potential success

 

2) nomination campaigns

 

party committees vs. party-in-the-electorate
the primary system
strengths and weaknesses

 

3) strategic planning for the general election

 

pre-campaign planning
campaign strategy
money, organization, money, media, money
 

4) the general election

 

general strategy
Electoral College strategy
 

 

 

Since these patterns or cycles are "locked in" those seeking political office can fairly much plan 

in advance their strategies (to attain the nomination, to attain office). 

Advanced planning is assisted by a series of campaign "consultants"--

strategists, handlers, media specialists, etc.

How is this different from other countries?

 Ruritania?
 

 

 

1) recruiting candidates for office

 

one of the primary tasks of a political party is to get candidates to run for office
in most party systems, nominations are tightly controlled by party leaders
this is especially true in systems with mass-based parties,
multi-member districts and list systems
if there is competition for a seat (or a place on the list) the "battle" in fought internally
party recruited candidates are thus the norm

 

in the US, with its single-member district system and it caucus parties, individuals associated with the party (but not necessarily the leadership) may seek the nomination of the party with the battle fought in an open caucus, convention, or in a primary election
 

there is thus, in the American system, more opportunity for self-recruited candidates

How do these variations in recruitment "fit" with the organizational styles of the caucus and mass-based parties?
 
depending upon the party's competitiveness in any particular election district,
this is either a very difficult or very easy task
candidates are easy to recruit in safe districts and difficult to recuit in
districts where party has little chance of success
in competitive districts both the candidates and the party are conscious of
making the correct decisions to achieve electoral success
in districts where the party doesn't have much of a chance, the party often accepts candidates who are willing to expend their own resources rather than to expend party resources on a futile race
 

 

2) nomination campaigns
open caucuses, conventions, and primaries are the major arenas in which party nominations take place. Both the caucus and convention have decreased dramatically at non-local levels. In part this is due to demands for greater access to the process by the-party-in-the-electorate and in part it is due to the lack of strong organizations at the state and national level.
 
Along with choosing nominees, conventions may also change the rules of future nomination process actions. Later, we will explore some of the changes which have altered the nomination process at the national level.
 
Direct Primaries
As discussed earlier, the direct primary was a reform of the Progressive era designed to increase the participation of the general citizenry in the nomination process and thus to pull the nomination out of the hands of political bosses and political machines.

 

It is now, far and away, the most utilized of the nomination selection procedures used to make statewide nominations in virtually every stay and even in most local elections. It is also now the dominant procedure in the presidential selection process as well.

 

There are four basic types of primaries that have been utilized in the US:

 

closed primary: only individuals registered as party members may participate

 

open primary: individual may select the ballot of either party,
regardless of registration status

 

wide-open (blanket) primary: either party's primary for each office

 

cross-filing primary: candidate could file to run in either party's primary
(advisory preference primary)
 
Alleged Effects of Primaries:

 

on the parties:
weaken control of party in the nomination process in general (+)
weaken control of party in government, especially the legislature (+)
encourage/ reward candidates not reflective of party mainstream (+/-)
encourage one-partyism in states with closed primaries (-)
unbalances tickets (+)
 
on voters:
primary voters differ from party identifiers (+)
characteristics of primary voters( older, better educated, homeowners, male)
disenfranchises voters of other party in open-party states with closed primaries (+)
increase turnout overall (-)
but reduce voter interest in general election in one-party states with closed primaries(+)
 

Party Reforms of the Nomination/ Selection Process
Primaries began to have a major impact upon the presidential race in 1960 when Kennedy used the West Virginia primary to demonstrate that southern voters would vote for a Catholic nominee for president.

 

The primaries were to increase in power dramatically in 8 short years. In 1968, Senator Eugene McCarthy utilized the primaries as method of challenging President Lyndon Johnson and his conduct of the Viet Nam war. McCarthy's surprising showing in New Hampshire was one of the factors in Johnson's decision not to run for another term. Vice-President Hubert Humphrey and Senator Robert Kennedy entered the primaries in short order. Robert Kennedy's assassination on the night of his victory in California added to the turmoil of the Democratic national convention. During the convention many felt that "party elites" (represented by such figures as Mayor Daley of Chicago) were subverting "the people's" wishes. With the nomination at stake, many of the rules governing the primaries were challenged. Almost all of the challenges were unsuccessful. This led to the creation of a commission to clarify, streamline and "open-up" the party's nomination process.

 

A series of commissions after the 1968 Democratic Party convention have altered the candidate selection process of the Democratic Party and secondarily to the Republican Party. Each commission attempted to "correct" what were perceived to be problems with the preceding primary, convention, and general election. The changes have thus been a response to the failure to win.
 

3. strategic planning
running for political office in systems with regular elections allows for the development of sophisticated planning
the level of planning and its sophistication increases exponentially with the level of the office
in general, strategic planning involves the following decisions:
1) do I run
2) what are the financial resources that will be necessary
3) when do I declare my intention to run
4) who is my opposition in:
a) the primary;'
b) the general election
5) what isues are likely to involved and what is my position
6) who are the traditional base, what independents are the key to success
 
to answer these questions, a sophisticated battery of consultants is now available:
a) media specialists
b) fundraising consultants
c) speech writers
d) strategists
Most of these consultants are hired early and are part of the candidate's own staff. During the primaries the party remains neutral. After the nomination process is over, the candidate generally retains his/her own staff. Thus, campaigns have:
candidate-centered campaign staffs
not party-centered campaign staffs. The party is thus placed in a secondary postiion. After these people are elected to office, they generally do not have much of a debt to the party for their success.
Another factor which lessens allegiance to the party is the increasing impact of money in campaigns. Many of the facotrs which lead to success--polling, media, etc. cost money. For most offices, the party cannot contribute the amounts of money necessary. Thus candidates employ fund-raising consultants. Often the money comes from major contributors. Their goals and the party's goals may often be at odds.
 
4. the general election
for most offices the general election strategy is deceptively simple:
a) energize your supporters and get them to the polls to vote
b) identify issues which win over independents and turn them out
the key is: TURNOUT
With little public attention to issues and politics in general a part of the electoral scene, media consultants are often utilized to identify "hot button issues" (ie., issues which energize people). Often these issues involve negative reactions to words, pictures, etc. This has led of course, to the growth of negative campaigning and most importantly, the negative ad.
Negative advertising becomes especially important in non-national elections, when turnout is far smaller and energizing a relatively small part of the electorate can dramatically affect the election result.