Distribution of Preference 

The distribution of preference map is designed to be a "snapshot" of the distribution of ideological sentiment in any country. Ideological sentiment is measured in different ways in different countries although the predominant approach is through the public opinion poll. In this circumstance people are generally asked a battery of questions and are then scored along an ideological continuum or are asked to self-place themselves along an ideological scale.  Both methods can be critiqued for a variety of reasons.  

The ideological stands (across the top of the grid) vary from far left (01) to far right (20). The percentages (along the left side of the grid) reflect the percent of respondents at the time of the survey who "fall" into the particular ideological space on the continuum. The red square in each column represents the percentage of the population who are currently holding opinions typical of that ideological position. It is expected that there will be fluctuations over time in societies as events, campaigns, election success, coalitions, and policies influence people. 

 

Let's assume the initial  distribution of preference in a society is:

Left 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Right
8% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 8%
7% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 7%
6% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 6%
5% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 5%
4% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 4%
3% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 3%
2% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 2%
1% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 1%
Left 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Right
(Note:  May not total 100% if responses are uncodeable or respondant refuses to answer)


How would you describe this country?  If we applied von Beyme's notions of the families of parties along the ideological dimension?
COM SOC ECO LIB/RAD AGRAR REG?ETH XIANDEM CONS RWINGEXTR
01,02 03-05 06 07-10 11 12 13-15 16-18 19-20
12% 17% 3% 18% 3% 4% 15% 13% 15%

 

What party would win if this country had a simple plurality system with a district magnitude of one?

In a proportional system with a district magnitude of 5?  10%  100?

With a threshold of 5%

With alternative voting?

 


Fluctuations in the Distribution of Preferences 

While the distribution of preferences within any particular society will generally change slowly (assuming that public opinion reflects the cleavages in society and the political culture), there can be wide variations in the distribution of preferences between different societies! A society with very few social cleavages and a well-entrenched dominant political culture will generally have what is called a "unimodal" distribution of preferences. In this type of society, most citizens congregate around the center of the political spectrum:

Unimodal Distribution of Preferences

Stand 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
12% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
11% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
10% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
9% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
8% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
7% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
6% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
5% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Stand 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20