Dimensions of Electoral Systems

How to Count

methods

electworld

spectrum

 

Lijphart Models

Social Cleavage

Lijphart's 7 Cleavages

USDOP

spatial analysis

2002 French Pres elections

2003 Israeli election

Lipset and Rokkan

distribution of preference

      There are five factors to consider when exploring electoral systems in various countries:

1)  electoral formula

2)  district magnitude

3)  supplementary seats

4) electoral thresholds

5)  ballot structure

Electoral Formula

Electoral formula and district magnitude are general explored together.  District magnitude addresses the number of representatives from any particular district and electoral formula determines how the representative(s) is/are selected.

There are a number of electoral formulas from which one may choose.  When coupled with district magnitude, the number of possibilities increases.

1)  Plurality System

In plurality systems there are many districts and each district elects only one candidate and the only requirement is that that candidate gets more votes than anyone else.

Let's look at the effect of this electoral formula (plurality) on:

1) the outcome of the election; and 

2) on voting

The results of the 1983, 1987, and 2001 elections in Britain are shown below.  Over time, Britain has developed a strong Conservative party and a strong Labour party.  At various times in British political history a Liberal party has attracted a significant following.  In the 1970s a disaffected group of Labour party members broke off and created the Social Democratic Party.  To further their chances of capturing seats the Liberal and Social Democratic parties created "the Alliance".  The two parties agreed to run only one candidate in any election district to increase their chances of success.  Look at what happened!

Voter Support and Parliamentary Seats in 1983 General Election to the British House of Commons 

Party

Voter Support

% Seats

# Seats

Conservatives

42.4

61.1

397

Labour

27.6

32.3

209

Alliance of Liberals and Social Democrats

25.4

3.5

23

Others

4.6

3.2

21

Total

100

100

650

  

Voter Support and Parliamentary Seats in 1987 General Election to the British House of Commons 

Party

Voter Support

% Seats

# Seats

Conservatives

42.3

57.8

376

Labour

30.8

35.2

229

Alliance of Liberals and Social Democrats

22.5

3.4

22

Others

4.4

3.6

23

Total

100

100

650

Although the Alliance got about 25% of the votes in two consecutive elections, they got only about 3.5% of the seats!

By the time 2001 rolls around, there is no Alliance, although there now is a Liberal Democratic Party getting about 18% of the votes and 8% of the seats.

Other parties, generally reflecting regional/ethnic concerns win in seats in their respective regions, and get 9.4% of the votes and yet only get 4.5% of the seats.

Who benefits?

Voter Support and Parliamentary Seats in 2001 General Election to the British House of Commons 

Party

Voter Support

% Seats

# Seats

Conservatives

31.7 25.6 166

Labour

40.7 61.9 402

 Liberal Democrats

18.21  8.0 52

Others*

9.4 4.5 29

Total

100 100 649

*      Ullster Unionist

6

0.82

Scottish Nationalist Party

5

1.76

DUP

5

0.69

Plaid Cymru

4

0.74

Sinn Fein

4

0.66

SDLP

3

0.64

 KHHC

1

0.10

Speaker

1

0.06

UK Independence Party

-

1.48

Green

-

0.63

British governments

Many argue that the percentage of Alliance/ Liberal Democratic votes may actually be even be higher!  Yet if you are a supporter and live in an election district where your party doesn't have a chance, what do you do?  

Many argue that the notion of anticipatory effects reduces the percentage of votes cast for 3rd parties!!

 Alliance/LD voters may not have wanted to "waste" their vote in constituencies where they didn't have a chance and where, if they did, they'd help elect the candidate they'd least like to see get elected.

This is generally considered to be a problem for all similar systems.  For example, what do Green Party, Libertarian Party, etc. voters do in the US?

2) Majority Systems

Majority formulas require an absolute majority of votes cast (50% + 1) to identify a victor in an election.

a) Majority

As the number of candidates increases beyond 2 this result becomes increasingly unlikely.  One way to fulfill the majority requirement in this circumstance is to have a second ballot runoff election between the top two votegetters.  

Louisiana 2002 Senate race             2002 French presidential election

b) Majority Plurality

A majority-plurality system requires an absolute majority for victory on a first ballot.  If no victor emerges then minor candidates are eliminated (in French parliamentary elections candidates not receiving at least 12.5% of the vote are eliminated from the second ballot.  The victor on the second ballot is the candidate with a plurality of the votes cast.

 

c) Alternative

The alternative vote is used in Australia.  Voters are asked to indicate their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. preference for candidates.  If a candidate receives an absolute majority of 1st preferences, he or she is elected.  If there is no such candidate, the candidate with the lowest number of first preferences is dropped and the ballots with this candidate listed as the first preference are transferred to the second preferences.  This procedure is repeated by excluding the candidate with the least preferences and redistributing the preferences until a majority winner emerges.

 

3)  Semi-proportional via s-nt-v

 The single non-transferable vote allows the voter to cast one vote for one candidate in a multimember district.  The candidates with the most votes win.  This system is often considered to be semi-proportional as it does not guarantee that the distribution of seats reflects the percentage of votes cast (one candidate in a 5 member district can get 80% of the vote but represents only 20% of the representatives).

4) Proportional Systems:

a) List proportional:

A relatively simple system where a party receives parliamentary seats in proportion to its share of the total vote.  If a parliament has, for example 100 seats and one party gets 25% of the votes, it gets 25 seats.  The nation is thus considered to be one electoral district.    The party determines the "party list", ie., the order in which candidates will get seats in Parliament.  In theory, every party would have a list of 100 possible members of parliament in case they got every vote.  Obviously, the higher up the list you are, the more likely you are to be a member of parliament.

Lets look at The Netherlands under the microscope.

B) Single transferable vote

The single-transferable vote is often considered the most complicated but also the most reflective electoral formula.  In this system voters rank-order individual candidates rather than party lists in multimember district elections.  Vote transfers similar to those in the alternative vote method occur but from both the top down  (from candidates who reach the vote threshold to assure a seat) and from the bottom up (as is done in the alternative vote method).  These steps are repeated until  all seats are filled.

District Magnitude

This denotes the number of candidates to be elected from a particular electoral district and ranges from one (the single-member district of legislatures in the US) to treating the country as one large multimember district (Israel).

H

As district magnitude increases, the prospect of proportionality increases.

Assume 100 voters in a district with the following results:

Candidate of party  A= 20

Candidate of party  B= 10

Candidate of party  C= 30

Candidate of party  D= 20

Candidate of party   E= 20

In a single-member plurality system of elections, Candidate C is the sole representative elected from the district thus the percentage of people not represented is 70%  (100% who voted minus the 30% whose candidate was elected)

In a multimember district with 5 representatives elected from the district:

Party A = 1 representative

Party B = 0 representative

Party C = 2 representatives

Party D = 1 representatives

Party E = 1 representatives

In this system, only those who supported Party B did not get represented, thus 10% are  not represented

 

In a multimember district with 10 representatives elected from the district:

Party A = 2 representatives

Party B = 1 representative

Party C = 3 representatives

Party D = 2 representatives

Party E = 2 representatives

All voters are represented and in proportion to their strength in the electorate.

Supplementary Seats

In order to correct some of the deviations from proportionality that may occur in proportional systems of representation with small district magnitudes, a number of seats may allocated to underrepresented parties. 

H

The larger the number of seats available for allocation, the closer an electoral system can get to proportionality.

Austria,   Denmark,  Iceland,  Sweden

Electoral Thresholds

Nation-wide districts and supplementary seats maximize proportionality and facilitate the representation of very small parties.  In order not to make it easy for very small (or frivolous) parties to get represented, all countries with nation-wide districts and supplementary seats have minimum thresholds that parties must attain before they can be represented.  It can be small (.67% in the Netherlands and 1% in Israel or relatively large (4% in Sweden and 5% in Germany).

 

Ballot Structure

Ballots may be categorical or ordinal.

Categorical ballots require that a voter give his mandate to a single party (either one candidate or one party's list of candidates)

Example A Example B
single-member district system in which you only vote for one of 5 candidates multimember district where you are choosing 5 representatives but you must cast your vote for one slate/list of party candidates

In both Example A and Example B you are only choosing one category of representative(s) to represent you!

Ordinal ballots allow a voter to distribute his mandate to more than one candidate or party

 

Example C
Multimember district with 5 representatives and proportional representation
Select 5 candidates from a list where 5 parties each present 5 candidates:

select 5 from a list of 25

You can choose 5 from one party or a mixture from multiple parties

Read for Monday/ Quiz

 Daalder

"In Search of the Center of European Party Systems"