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Read: D&Z 8

 


Theoretically

"What do the theories say about elections?"

 

Empirically

"What have social scientists discovered about elections?"

"What can we discover about elections?"

 

Comparatively

"What types of electoral systems are there?"

"What are elections like in other countries?"

 

Theoretically


elite theory

Elections are meaningless rituals. 

They are designed to tie the masses to the elite political system.



plural theory

Elections are a vehicle by which those who are motivated to participate in politics can make choices as to who will facilitate the plural political system. 

Elections are thus a personnel choice where voters decide who will occupy political positions such as President, Governor, Mayor, etc. 

At best, elections can hold politicians accountable for their actions. (Voting as a retrospective judgment.


democratic theory

Elections are one of the arenas in which people participate meaningfully in the decisions that affect their lives.  

In order to do this, elections must provide meaningful choices for voters, the candidates must differ on the issues, their stands must be clear and citizens must understand the differences between the candidates.  (Ie., there must be a "responsible party system"!)

 

Empirically


What evidence can be examined to test the competing theories?

 

Possible evidence to explore:



1) the nature/ characteristics of the American electoral system

 2) turnout rates in elections

3)  the nature of electoral campaigns

4)  why individuals vote the way they do  

 

  Characteristics of the American Electoral  System

There are 3 characteristics which shape interest articulation:

regularity, unit rule and plurality


1)  regularity

 elections occur at specific intervals

How does the principle of regularity affect the behavior of people? of parties? of candidates?

1)  people see politics as episodic

 2)  the parties are not really organized "between" elections

3)  candidates know in advance when elections are and can develop their own strategies, including going "outside of the party" through primaries

2 and 3 yield "candidate-centered" campaign organizations with:

  a)  media specialists  

b)  image merchants  

c) strategic planners


2) unit rule

there is only one representative per district  

How does this affect the nature of the interest articulation process?

1)  can one representative be representative of the diversity of opinion in any district?  are interest groups a natural outgrowth of the lack of representation in legislatures

2) how does this affect political parties:


a) the number of political parties


b) their strategy for victory


 (especially when tied to characteristic #3?)

 

3) how does this affect citizen perceptions of the process?

 

While we tend to focus on the impact of unit rule on legislative elections, let's take a look at presidential elections.  Perhaps the best example of the idea of unit rule is:  

The Electoral College

How is the Electoral College an example of unit rule?

(Answer:  if a candidate gets a plurality of votes in a state she/he gets all of the state's electoral votes!  Remember Florida 2000?)

Win by 1 vote or 99% - 1%, the result is still the same

(Now do you understand why chads, pregnant chads, and dimpled chads were so important, as well as machines that hadn't been cleaned, didn't work because of bent styluses, etc?)

  (Note:  Plurality is replaced by the concept of majority when it comes to total EC votes needed to win--there you need a majority--270 of the 538 cast!)   

How does all of this affect candidate strategy in presidential elections?

Does it favor small or large states?
Role of multi-state media markets

The 2000 Presidential elections has raised some of these questions.  Here are proposals for reform of the Electoral College which have been debated for decades!"

Proposals for Reform


1) apportion state electoral college votes in proportion to candidate percentage
carry out to three decimal places?

2) treat each congressional district as a unit and award 2 votes (Senate seat equivalent) to candidate who captures a plurality in the state

3) popular vote do away with the EC all together person with most votes wins? 40% rule? runoff?    

Who would have won under each of these circumstances?

Are they any less questionable than having a 5-4 Supreme Court majority determine the outcome?

 

3) plurality

a first-past-the post system majority of votes cast is not necessary in order to win only  more votes than anyone else (when election involves more than 2 candidates, likelihood of majority of votes cast is small)  How does this affect:


1) political party strategy

 2) the nature of the outcome of the elections

3) the nature of representation